Over 1 million Americans have died from drug overdoses since 2000, with some 70-80% of these deaths involving a fatal dose of the synthetic opioid fentanyl. Fentanyl is the leading cause of death for Americans between the ages of 18 and 45. In 2023, the U.S. government seized 77 million fentanyl pills and nearly 12,000 pounds of fentanyl powder. These record seizures represent enough to kill every American. At the heart of this crisis are precursor chemicals, almost exclusively manufactured and exported from China to the Mexican Sinaloa and Jalisco cartel organizations. China likely views this complex intersection of public health and international relations as a bargaining chip to gain concessions from the U.S. 

China's investments in Djibouti represent a pivotal moment for U.S. interests in a global maritime nexus. The establishment of China's first overseas military base, coupled with expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, underscores the tangible manifestations of China's ambitions in the region. These developments are significant not only for their potential to alter regional power dynamics, but also for enabling China to project its military power more effectively and enhance its intelligence-gathering capabilities near U.S. and allied forces. Moreover, the risk of Djibouti falling into a debt trap, unable to repay Chinese loans, could lead to critical infrastructure falling under Chinese control, compounding the challenges faced by the U.S. in maintaining its influence and safeguarding its interests in this maritime corridor.

Last winter, Russia attempted to break the will of the Ukrainian people to force a peace settlement through widespread attacks against Ukraine’s energy sector. Having failed, and in the face of an increasingly advanced Ukrainian air defense posture, Moscow likely shifted tactics.

On 29 December 2023, Russia launched the largest barrage of missiles and drones against key cities across Ukraine since the start of the war. Similar large-scale attacks have continued into 2024. These barrages have primarily targeted the front line, striking energy infrastructure with far less frequency than in 2023.